H-1B Wage Levels Explained: How Your Salary Determines Your FY2027 Lottery Odds
The FY2027 H-1B lottery is no longer random. Under the DHS Final Rule published in December 2025, your selection probability is now directly tied to your prevailing wage level. This article breaks down exactly how the system works, with real numbers.
From Random Draw to Wage-Weighted Selection
For years, the H-1B cap lottery was a coin flip. Whether you earned $65,000 or $250,000, your odds were identical. A junior analyst at a consulting firm had the same shot as a principal engineer at a major tech company. That changed with the DHS Final Rule titled "Improving the H-1B Registration Selection Process," finalized in December 2025 and effective for the FY2027 cycle.
Under the new system, each H-1B registration is assigned a prevailing wage level (I through IV) based on the offered salary, occupation, and work location. Higher wage levels receive more weighted entries in the lottery, translating directly into better selection odds. The result: a Level IV worker now has roughly 3x the selection probability of a Level I worker.
What Are Wage Levels?
Wage levels are part of the Department of Labor's prevailing wage system, which has existed for decades to protect both US and foreign workers from wage suppression. The DOL publishes prevailing wage data for every combination of occupation (identified by Standard Occupational Classification code) and geographic area (metropolitan statistical area).
For each SOC code and metro area, the DOL defines four wage thresholds based on percentiles of actual wages paid in that labor market:
| Level | Description | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | Entry-Level | 17th |
| Level II | Qualified | 34th |
| Level III | Experienced | 50th |
| Level IV | Expert | 67th |
In practical terms, Level I represents the wage floor for that job in that area. Level IV represents someone being paid well above the median for their role. The same dollar salary can correspond to different wage levels depending on where you work and what job you're doing — $130,000 might be Level III for a data analyst in Houston but Level I for a software engineer in San Francisco.
How Wage Levels Map to Lottery Entries
The DHS Final Rule assigns weighted entries proportional to your wage level. The selection probability for each level is then calculated using the formula:
Where f is the per-ticket selection fraction (selection target divided by total weighted entries across all registrants) and w is your number of weighted entries (1 through 4).
Based on current estimates of approximately 280,000 registrations, a 120,000 selection target, and a wage level distribution of 32% Level I, 38% Level II, 19% Level III, and 11% Level IV, here are the resulting probabilities:
| Wage Level | Weighted Entries | Selection Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Level I (Entry-Level) | 1 | ~20.5% |
| Level II (Qualified) | 2 | ~36.8% |
| Level III (Experienced) | 3 | ~49.7% |
| Level IV (Expert) | 4 | ~60.1% |
Note that the relationship is not perfectly linear. A Level IV worker does not have exactly 4x the odds of Level I. Because each weighted entry is drawn independently, the compounding effect means Level IV's advantage is roughly 2.9x (60.1% vs. 20.5%), not 4x. Still, the difference is substantial.
How Your Wage Level Is Determined
Your wage level is not a self-reported choice. It is calculated by comparing your offered salary against the DOL's prevailing wage thresholds for your specific job and location. Three factors determine the result:
1. Your occupation (SOC code)
The Standard Occupational Classification system assigns a code to every job title. "Software Developer" is SOC 15-1252. "Financial Analyst" is SOC 13-2051. "Mechanical Engineer" is SOC 17-2141. Your employer selects the SOC code that best matches your actual job duties when filing the Labor Condition Application.
2. Your work location (metro area)
Prevailing wages vary dramatically by geography. The threshold for Level II in San Jose is far higher than the same threshold in Raleigh, because local labor markets have different pay scales. The DOL publishes separate prevailing wage data for each metropolitan statistical area (MSA).
3. Your offered salary
Your annual salary is compared against the four thresholds for your SOC code + metro area combination. If your salary falls between the Level II and Level III thresholds, you are classified as Level II. You need to meet or exceed a threshold to be at that level.
This means two people with identical salaries can have completely different wage levels if they work in different cities or hold different job titles. A $140,000 salary might be Level III for a business analyst in Phoenix but only Level I for a software developer in New York.
A Real Example: Software Developer in Seattle
Let's walk through how this works with concrete numbers. Consider a Software Developer (SOC 15-1252) working in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area. The DOL prevailing wage thresholds for this combination are approximately:
| Level | Salary Threshold | Entries | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | ~$98,000 | 1 | ~20.5% |
| Level II | ~$126,000 | 2 | ~36.8% |
| Level III | ~$155,000 | 3 | ~49.7% |
| Level IV | ~$183,000 | 4 | ~60.1% |
Now consider two candidates applying for the same job title in Seattle:
Candidate A is offered $130,000. This exceeds the Level II threshold ($126,000) but falls short of Level III ($155,000). Result: Level II — 2 entries — ~36.8% odds.
Candidate B is offered $160,000. This exceeds the Level III threshold ($155,000) but falls short of Level IV ($183,000). Result: Level III — 3 entries — ~49.7% odds.
The $30,000 salary difference between these two candidates translates to a 12.9 percentage point improvement in selection odds. That is the single largest impact of the new wage-weighted system: salary increases near a threshold boundary can meaningfully change your probability of selection.
What This Means for You
The wage-weighted system creates several practical considerations that did not exist under the old random lottery:
Salary negotiation matters more than ever
If your offered salary is close to a threshold boundary, negotiating even a modest increase could bump you to the next wage level. In the Seattle example above, the difference between $124,000 (Level I, ~20.5%) and $126,000 (Level II, ~36.8%) is just $2,000 in salary but 16.3 percentage points in selection odds. Check where your salary falls relative to the thresholds before finalizing your offer.
Location changes your odds
Because prevailing wage thresholds are set locally, the same salary achieves a higher wage level in lower-cost metros. A $130,000 salary might qualify as Level III in Dallas but only Level II in Seattle and Level I in San Jose. If you have flexibility in where you work — especially with remote positions — the work location on your LCA directly affects your lottery odds.
Job title classification matters
The SOC code assigned to your role determines which set of prevailing wage thresholds you are measured against. A role classified as "Software Developer" (SOC 15-1252) has different thresholds than "Computer Systems Analyst" (SOC 15-1211) in the same city. Make sure your employer is using the SOC code that most accurately reflects your actual duties, as this directly impacts your wage level assignment.
Lower levels still have a real chance
While Level IV workers have the best odds at ~60.1%, Level I is not zero — it is approximately a 1-in-5 shot at ~20.5%. Under the old system with similar registration volumes, the flat-rate probability was around 36% for everyone. Level I workers do face lower odds than before, but the lottery remains far from deterministic at any level.
A Note on Estimates
The probabilities cited in this article are based on projected inputs: approximately 280,000 registrations, a 120,000 selection target, and an estimated wage distribution of 32% Level I, 38% Level II, 19% Level III, and 11% Level IV. The actual FY2027 numbers will not be finalized until after the March 2026 registration window closes. If registration volume comes in higher than expected, everyone's odds decrease. If the proportion of high-wage registrations increases, the per-ticket fraction adjusts downward, slightly reducing odds across all levels.
These estimates are grounded in USCIS historical data, DOL prevailing wage publications, and the DHS regulatory impact analysis. We will update our calculator as official data becomes available.
Want to see your exact odds based on your salary, job title, and work location? Our calculator uses real DOL prevailing wage data and the official DHS formula to estimate your FY2027 selection probability.